Weather Station

Crosslink: Weather and History

by John Matthews

In 1492, the Niña, Pinta, and the Santa Maria set sail during the peak of the hurricane season. Amazingly, Christopher Columbus and his small fleet did not come across a single hurricane. How could that happen?

ASU geographer and climatologist Randy Cerveny has answers to this question about Columbus' luck. He compared the route Columbus sailed with historical hurricane data collected during this century.

"Notorious modern hurricanes such as Gilbert and Hugo were spawned during September and October," Cerveny explains. "Yet, according to Columbus' logbooks, he and his ships failed to meet with even nominally severe weather.

"Columbus' odds of meeting a big hurricane were less than one per century. He was a lucky sailor. He chose an incredibly favorable course—the best possible to avoid hurricanes," Cerveny says.

After discovering America, Columbus spent several years exploring Caribbean islands. It seems likely that a hurricane would have crossed the explorer's path at some point. More hurricane activity begins in the Caribbean than in the Atlantic Ocean.

"For study purposes, we created what we call the 'Caribbean Box.' The Box includes an area where Columbus would most likely have been in 1492," Cerveny explains.

The ASU professor's computer model shows that no hurricanes have passed through the box during the last half of October in this century.

"This is another remarkable statistic in Columbus' favor!" Cerveny exclaims.

Although the admiral enjoyed favorable odds, the probability of coming across a hurricane was not zero. But would Columbus' fleet have survived if it did? Yes it would have, Cerveny says.

"After all, Columbus was a naturally gifted sailor. He used weather to the greatest advantage. He also was a skilled navigator." Columbus did have a close call with bad weather during his fourth and final voyage in 1503.

"Columbus saw clues that a major storm was brewing and predicted that it would hit Hispaniola," Cerveny says. "He didn't know the storm would be a hurricane because he had never seen one. But he recognized the signs of impending bad weather and warned the governor."

The governor ignored him and dispatched a fleet of 20 ships. The ships carried treasures of gold and jewels for the King of Spain. The valuable cargo never reached the Spanish crown.

"That fleet went to the bottom of the Caribbean with all hands," Cerveny says.

Columbus realized the danger and disobeyed the governor's orders. His ships stayed anchored safely in the harbor. The ships survived the powerful storm with only minor damage.

Historical records suggest that the 1490s were calm years in both the Old and New Worlds. Few major storms were recorded and harvests were good all across Europe. Other historical statistics reveal that climate conditions worsened dramatically during the early 1500s.

"Suddenly, there are many reports of severe storms and hurricanes, particularly from 1530 through the 1550s. Lots of Spanish ships were destroyed," Cerveny adds. "So, perhaps Christopher Columbus was lucky that he sailed to the New World a half century before this stormy period began."

If a hurricane had come across Columbus' path, America's history might have been very different.